The Watch Site banner

The Vintage Seiko Valuation Guide

81K views 118 replies 48 participants last post by  scubarob99 
#1 · (Edited)
Somewhat inspired by the excellent Speedmaster101 , Jim W and I have been working on documenting what we think are expected values for a variety of vintage Seikos.

It's by no means complete, it's by no means a byword in accuracy, but as Bart Simpson says, My Bubble, My Rules.

We've assessed watches on 5 conditions, from Poor to NOS, but only price estimated Running, Good and Excellent. Prices are in USD and for head only, even though you wouldn't have a Collector or NOS watch without a corresponding bracelet (say). There are many variables but we think this is a good starting point for assessment.

We'd love to hear your feedback and thoughts... and where there are gaps, please let us know what you think the values should be.

PRICE GUIDE: See here.
last update made to Divers and 6139 sections, 29th December 2020.

Ewan & Jim
 
#6 ·
Wow, well done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
#9 ·
This is great, thanks for taking the time to put it together. It's also a reality check on how crazily the prices have climbed of late, especially on the high-end stuff. I think your numbers are generally right, but in my collection spreadsheet I valued my collector-grade silver proof -6000 at $650 with original chiclet bracelet, and my collector-grade Daini 62mas at $1500. And I'm sure I already upped those estimates in the past couple years at least once!
 
#10 ·
This is great, thanks for taking the time to put it together. It's also a reality check on how crazily the prices have climbed of late, especially on the high-end stuff. I think your numbers are generally right, but in my collection spreadsheet I valued my collector-grade silver proof -6000 at $650 with original chiclet bracelet, and my collector-grade Daini 62mas at $1500. And I'm sure I already upped those estimates in the past couple years at least once!
I will give you 50% above that Brian !! :)
 
#13 ·
I think it evens out with easy access to mailand Europe (I will always consider the UK to be part of Europe) and the middle east. The UK market is really weird, scaling from outright cons to nieve seller goldmines. Europe from my experience seems to be a more level market. The stars of my collection come mostly from Spain, France and Italy.


Great work BTW guys.
 
#15 · (Edited)
Whilst the models listed here are not in my area of expertise, I do see lots of them sell when looking for vintage GS.

Certainly for the divers, I think the figures are significantly below market prices. I've seen multiple 6215's sell for over $10k over the last year, Suwa 6217-8001's for over $5K, a small crown NOS 6217 go for close to $8k, etc etc.

Hodinkee sold an average 6217-8000 for $4,500 recently.
 
#19 ·
These are just examples of hyped up asking prices. I think very few buyers are paying that kind of money. It's difficult to be precise, particularly on 6215's. They so rarely turn up for auction, but I can imagine fine examples easily clearing $10k.

In reality, 6139 Pogues, 6105 and 62mas divers are not rare watches, at any time there are plenty available, often in poor to average condition.
 
#23 ·
Nice effort but I feel like there should be something between Good and Collector. For example. I have a few 6138's that have been sympathetically restored.



In two instances the cases have been refinished but done properly, one (that is SGP) has been built from nos case parts so the plating is essentially factory new. All three have had the dials and hands expertly lumed. There are replacement parts that are both cosmetic and mechanical but all are oem. On two of them I have completely lost track of whether the crystals were oem or replacement but they are correct. One of them is built from nos and restored pieces from several watches but is all correct.



These are not collector in that they are not all original unto themselves and in pristine original condition. They are however cosmetically and mechanically beyond the Good category and would be the type of restoration that many of us have or would like to have done.


Valuation on something like this is of course subject to market whims and what a specific buyer is looking to acquire.
 
#30 ·
Rule 1: My Bubble, My Rules. There is no rule 2.

Thanks for the constructive comments and robust critiques, all.

I do think it's worth underlining that this guide is something Jim and I put together for our own use and enjoyment, and we choose to share it with everyone else. If you disagree with the guide, then we're all for looking at whether we got the prices wrong and adjusting...

... but ultimately, as Jim says, if you want to do your own guide then go for it.

As to Saul's comment:

Nice effort but I feel like there should be something between Good and Collector. For example. I have a few 6138's that have been sympathetically restored.
A good point, though think of Running / Good / Collector as mid-points in their own range; it's quite possible that your restored watches wouldn't lend themselves to be in true Collector category, but they could be very very Good and therefore be at or even above the lower bound of Collector. These aren't hard and fast rules, just stakes in the ground.

Examples:
The guide lists yellow, Proof, 6139-6000s as $850 Good and $1000 Collector. Does that mean that any watch assessed as Collector should be valued more than $850, possibly even higher than $1000? Probably.

But show me a July 1970 Yellow Proof in good shape (doesn't need to be mint, so definitely not collectable) with an original President bracelet, and I'll have it off your wrist for $1200. It's all about me being a motivated collector for that particular watch. I wouldn't pay top dollar for a 5 Speedtimer because I happen to not like them that much, so show me a Collector yellow, 6000 Speedtimer on original JDM bracelet and I'd probably not want to pay more than $1500 for it all in, unless I thought I could pass it on to someone else who really wants it.
 
#26 ·
Certainly any given watch can sell for any possible amount to a hungry buyer or a bidding war on an auction site.



As a buyer I have grossly overpaid when I had to and as a seller I have been the recipient of 2 or more motivated buyers pitted against each other. Yet that doesn't change the value to be included in the table as I understand it is to be used.



I like the Pogue valuations in this table because they show what I would reasonably charge or pay thinking it was fair to buyer and seller.
 
#27 ·
While I take Gerald's point completely, I think perhaps this guide could be (and seemingly is) tethered to auction prices on the most common websites - eBay and YJ. Respectfully I think pointing to prices via private sellers in Japan and fluffed-up websites like Hodinkee just isn't representative of what folks on this forum typically pay for watches. Ditto for sales made by guys like Spencer, who get massive premiums off auction prices because of the trust/fame/ease factor, but very rarely sell to deal-oriented folks that frequent this forums. Yes, those numbers are relevant for people like Gerald/Bertrand/Erik who consistently go for the best-of-the-best and want to ensure they are always getting what they pay for. But there's good reason I've got 500+ vintage Japanese watches and have never once bought from those sources.

I'm actually probably representative of the opposite side here in that all of these prices still seem really inflated to me. When I started collecting (about 10 years ago) I had virtually no spare income, and I've somewhat carried over that attitude even now that I do. I'd say 80% of my collection came from what I call "yeah right" bids - snipes I put in at well less than I thought would be necessary to win the watch, but I won anyway, usually because of a lousy listing/bad photos or the like. I win maybe one out of 20 of my "yeah right" snipes, but I put in at least 3 or 4 a day. So the valuation prices in my collection spreadsheet are way below market. Respectfully, Gerald, my collection pales in comparison to yours in terms of per-watch (and probably total) value, but I have collector-grade versions of all the watches in this guide other than the 6215/6159, and I paid well below market for all but one or two of them. The other 20% of my watches were all "I want this badly and will pay well for it," but my internal estimates for watches still tend to be well below what a fair, well-described auction would bring - which is still well below what the Hodinkee/private Japanese vendor market would bring. I think my valuations wouldn't be any more helpful in this guide than the sale history of Hodinkee's would be - the drafters (I think rightly) just aren't going for that market.
 
#37 ·
Hi Bill -

As per above post, I've provided actual closed auction prices for 6215's and 6217's. I absolutely agree that auctions are where you will get the best indication of "true" market value at the time of the auction.

But the time of the auction is of course the key thing here. Whilst I don't question for one moment that you have acquired many of your pieces at below the guide prices provided, I would be extremely impressed if you acquired those collector grade pieces all in the last year to 18 months. After all, you state that you have been collecting for a decade.

We have to be realistic and look at the market as it is operating today.

You freely admit that your "internal estimates for watches" are below prices that a fair, well presented auction would bring, but this simply demonstrates that your internal estimate does not reflect the actual market.

We're all biased by the prices that we have paid for our own watches. Sometimes we manage to nab a bargain, sometimes "the" piece comes up and we're prepared to pay a premium to get it.

Guides such as the one presented can be of enormous value to collectors, but they need to be totally objective, and not be dismissive of the actual market conditions. In the introductory explanation to the guide, the authors state "Some watches are overpriced currently and others have some catching up to do".

That's not an objective way to approach a price guide.

Kind regards,


Gerald.
 
#28 ·
Thanks for this Ewan and Jim.

While it’s tempting to focus on exact numbers, I’m not sure that’s important.

We all assess value with a different prioritisation of each aspect of the watch and have our own tolerances for the percentage of “market rate” we’re willing to pay.

The real value of a guide like this is to define an approach and apply it consistently to document the relative values of models and variants. I think you’ve done that excellently.
 
#38 ·
I applaud the effort at trying to bring clarity to the state of the market.

That said, I'd like to see a more data-based approach.

There should be a table of concrete data points from auction results (possibly with outliers struck on evidence of market tampering) on which a simple time-based curve is fit - and the current valuation should be an evaluation of this curve at the current time.

At least, that's how I'd do it.

It's possible that the current values are computed, but I can't see the computation.

Also, I'm buying every single collector-grade small-crown 6217 that anyone wants to
sell me for $2400.
 
#42 · (Edited)
Seiko is not Rolex

Is there really a strong investment market for Seiko watches?

I see the interest coming more from Seiko Collectors rather than Investors..........with the primary reason to purchase being to collect rather than invest?

and the Rolex "investment" market will always be volatile, particularly if you are hoping to buy today and sell tomorrow
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top