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Where do you get $5.2k from? I'm really quite intrigued.

And as to what your assumptions for my plans for the watch are, frankly I have no idea what that has to do with the discussion.

Top 12 sales of 6215's on YJ in the last two and a half years in descending order of price (in million Yen, rounded to nearest 100k) -

1.5
1.4
1.4
1.1
1
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8 (that's my one)
0.8


Top YJ sales for 6217's in the last 12 months (in 100k)

869
712
581
561
534
471
431
401
379

That's just YJ, and doesn't include sales from Japanese dealers that I am aware of (I keep track on around 50 off YJ). I don't look at eBay at all, so no idea what sells through there.

Like I said. The figures provided in the guide for the divers are significantly below what the better quality pieces are selling for in recent times.

Don't shoot the messenger.

And don't make assumptions about what my plans are for watches I add to my personal collection.

Ahh yeah sorry gbp vs usd. 5.6k or 799k yen indeed. I don't see any links or screenshots to those that you're telling me have sold at 10k prices, which is what I asked for, and which would strictly be proof? But I will take your word for it. I don't want to make an assumption for what you are going to do with the watch, but it is related to the discussion in a way. For example: let's say one buys a watch that is 3 or 4k below perceived market value, and is then deemed again to be of a lesser value by an online guide - much like the one we were discussing here - one's incentive to correct the information provided is greater as one's main goal is to make a profit on said watch.

I'm often curious that if many of these Seikos were suddenly worth a fraction of their inflated value, back to say even 2015 prices, would many collectors lose interest? Certainly seems a different type of enthusiasm has come about over the last few years, mostly centred around making some quick dosh, or profiting off other watch collectors, however you may want to see it.:)

With my dealer hat on, I'm interested in making a profit on what I sell, so again - it is not in my best interest to attempt to pump the market because it would increase my input prices.
That is odd, as it seems to be what you are doing?

In fact, what would be nefarious of me would be to do the complete opposite, and that would be to produce a price guide that undervalues watches so that I could scare people off from bidding on pieces that I was keen to acquire for the minimum possible price.
Scare which people off? Those who are only interested in profit? It wouldn't, however, scare those off who actually have a passion and interest for the actual watch, would it?

Again, as I said above, I wonder just how many people would stop paying attention to these things if they were cheap(er) again? "Veblen goods", I think is the term. There are also a large amount of collectors whose main focus is pumping up prices. Only have to look at Ebay, or Instagram, or Yahoo which is becoming pretty similar to both, to see this. It has no end in sight I'm afraid to say. All that will happen is many will simply move on after growing quite bored with just how much it seems to all be about........money. Or, will not look at a 6215 and think "oh that's worth dropping 10 grand on!" :)

Here is a quote from a recent article about watch collecting being fun, on ablogtowatch. It had some interesting points I thought and seems apt to post it now.
To be clear, I'm not making any assumptions about you!



https://www.ablogtowatch.com/on-ariels-watch-is-being-a-watch-collector-still-fun/
 

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Seiko is not Rolex

Is there really a strong investment market for Seiko watches?

I see the interest coming more from Seiko Collectors rather than Investors..........with the primary reason to purchase being to collect rather than invest?

and the Rolex "investment" market will always be volatile, particularly if you are hoping to buy today and sell tomorrow
 

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Except you said neither GBP nor 5.6k.

You said $5.2k

(Oh, and wrong auction BTW. But nice effort.)

I don't see any links or screenshots to those that you're telling me have sold at 10k prices, which is what I asked for, and which would strictly be proof? But I will take your word for it.
I see no need to provide incontrovertible proof. The data is out there if you care to investigate for yourself.

I don't want to make an assumption for what you are going to do with the watch, but it is related to the discussion in a way. For example: let's say one buys a watch that is 3 or 4k below perceived market value, and is then deemed again to be of a lesser value by an online guide - much like the one we were discussing here - one's incentive to correct the information provided is greater as one's main goal is to make a profit on said watch.
And here is where we will depart our separate ways.

When buying a watch for my personal collection there is no profit motive whatsoever. Someone could offer me $15k for that 6215 tomorrow and I'd tell them to take a hike. You'll find there are plenty of other collectors out there who have precisely the same perspective.

Stop projecting your own mindset onto others.

That is odd, as it seems to be what you are doing?
I don't deal in any of the references discussed in this valuation guide. So yet another of your accusations falls completely flat.

Scare which people off? Those who are only interested in profit? It wouldn't, however, scare those off who actually have a passion and interest for the actual watch, would it?
Because of course I have neither passion nor interest for watches. Nor do many other people who are prepared to pay top $ for the top quality pieces - they're all just in it for the money.

Whereas you're a true passionate collector who has a genuine interest in watches.

Congratulations. You convinced me. Have a biscuit.
 

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Discussion Starter #46
https://youtu.be/Zu0LJtbWBTg?t=28

Where's the data? In my head, and in Jim's head.

Let's revisit the GUIDANCE tab in the guide:

This guide was created for the authors' own use and enjoyment, drawn mainly from own experience. None of this is set in stone, and hopefully will evolve over time. Some watches are overpriced currently and others have some catching up to do. Some examples are much more elusive than others: e.g. Silver Pogues seem to turn up a lot less often than their Blue and Yellow counterparts. This is reflected in their valuation. If you think we're widely wrong, you're welcome to your opinion and you may even convince us to change our views too, but if not, then remember - this is a guide, not a prescriptive value chart.
As an exercise, I started looking through FS posts for a couple of watch families, not YJ auctions and not Ebay but trading between collectors. And it seems the asking prices are pretty much in line with what's in the guide, or you could say that the other way around. The guide is not a retrospective "show me the data for what this sells for" (like the HAGI Porsche Index ), it's mine and Jim's - and others, if you want to join us - opinion of what we might pay ourselves for a watch of a given type and condition. Nothing more and nothing less.
 

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The guide is not a retrospective "show me the data for what this sells for" (like the HAGI Porsche Index ), it's mine and Jim's - and others, if you want to join us - opinion of what we might pay ourselves for a watch of a given type and condition. Nothing more and nothing less.
Gosh. We could have all saved a lot of time if you'd stated this in your initial post, and not this -

Somewhat inspired by the excellent Speedmaster101 , Jim W and I have been working on documenting what we think are expected values for a variety of vintage Seikos.
As you were then. Apologies for clogging up the thread with meaningless and irrelevant posts.

Kind regards,


Gerald.
 

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(Oh, and wrong auction BTW. But nice effort.)
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/447538613

Not the same watch?
Read what I write, rather than listening to what's in your head.

Just the most cursory of glances would have told you it couldn't have been the auction you linked to, because it had no bids.

After all, were not people opining earlier in this very thread (and rightly so) about the importance of paying attention to what prices things actually sell for, rather than what they are listed at?

You seem oddly fixated on sharing what I paid for my watch; inventing scenarios in your head as to my motivation for purchasing it; and what plans I may have for it.

Can I respectfully suggest that, once you have no doubt expensed the necessary time and effort into tracking down the actual auction that I 'won', and share the facts of that auction with the community here, you find something a little more productive and less, well, downright weird, to do with your time?
 

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Discussion Starter #50
Gosh. We could have all saved a lot of time if you'd stated this in your initial post, and not this -



As you were then. Apologies for clogging up the thread with meaningless and irrelevant posts.

Kind regards,


Gerald.
https://youtu.be/nv2wQvn6Wxc?t=54

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit, Empty vessels make the most noise. etc.

Glad you're finished commenting on this thread, Gerald. Leave it up to the people who would offer to contribute rather than simply criticise.
 

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Gosh. We could have all saved a lot of time if you'd stated this in your initial post, and not this -



As you were then. Apologies for clogging up the thread with meaningless and irrelevant posts.

Kind regards,


Gerald.
https://youtu.be/nv2wQvn6Wxc?t=54

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit, Empty vessels make the most noise. etc.

Glad you're finished commenting on this thread, Gerald. Leave it up to the people who would offer to contribute rather than simply criticise.
That wasn't sarcasm. I'm being totally honest.

It might have made even more sense if you'd titled the thread as a "WTB" post. It would have saved us all the trouble.

I get it now. They are the prices YOU are willing to pay for the watches you list.

I'm simply pointing out the disparity between the claims you make in the first post, and what you admit to now.

Pretending to pass this off as something akin to an honest presentation of watch values is disingenuous in the extreme.
 

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Discussion Starter #52
Pretending to pass this off as something akin to an honest presentation of watch values is disingenuous in the extreme.
Nobody's pretending to do anything; it's very clear that it's an estimate of values which Jim & I have put together and chose to share. At least it's clear to most of us; if it's not to you, then that's too bad. As I've already said: my bubble, my rules.

Anyway, I thought you were done with this thread? :rolleyes:
 

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Any guide should be better than no guide.



The existence of a guide showing a low price won't create a low priced sale unless a seller is clueless and found it on a google search to list his watch on ebay or craigslist. Not a worry in my book.



An overinflated price will only help create a new overpriced sale should the buyer be a newbie, which I think actually could happen. So in that sense there is a responsibility to keep the prices in line with what the market is bearing.



There will always be a divergence. I am OK with that.



I say great job, it gives us all a place to weigh in. Of course up to debate.


And Gerald is super right about timing. Imagine how low these prices would have been say 5 years ago. I sold a Pogue for $49 because it was in sad shape !
 

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I guess for some of us this estimate of values was just that, a baseline or so of current prices, no agenda or undertones...at least that's how I took it in as. How it spiraled into such a heated debate is beyond me.

Rob
 

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when buying watches, particularly older models, the buyer should always do their own research and any information, including this guide should help in that respect.

Recently I bought two 6105's in what I would regard as good condition, maybe a bit better than that - the 8110 Resist/R was £1,250 and the 8009 Resist/R was US$1,400. I have also recently bought a good condition+ 6306 7001 for £700.

To me, the watches are really good and great to wear and the prices I paid seemed reasonable, not in any way "bargains" but fair prices for what I received - I bought them from known sources, NOT auction sites, as I am happy to pay a little more when I can trust the situation.
I did not buy them as investments.

Here's an image on one of the watches
 

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When Ewan and I prepared this guide we knew it would create debate on the forum, and it certainly did, but I think it has generally been well received. This is very much a first draft and some values will need adjusting and some other versions added. We think it is worth developing and expanding from here, but never lose sight of the fact that it’s just a guide.

I am sure some people will have a scruffy watch that barely ticks, and expect to realise the highest price shown here, and at the other end of the scale, a top condition ‘safe queen’ can command a significantly higher price than the top price listed here for a collectible watch.

We all have our opinions, but hopefully this guide can be of use to show relative values of the watches of interest in our hobby.
 

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I appreciate your effort gentlemen. You cannot please everyone. It is for this reason (and others) that I have the quotes in my signature line that I do.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

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There's an expression that you can't argue about nothing - and I think it applies.

It can be valuable to put out something, anything, and thereby present a stage for argument - where over time collective truth can be established.

So I can see value here over the long term.

I do take argument with the lack of rigor in the current methodology, and I hope that at some point my way of thinking becomes a consensus view - and the chart is remade based on actual market results.

There are two principal problems to solve for someone trying to understand market value - where does one look for an answer, and how reliable is the answer they find.

This thread may have already solved the first. Hoping over time it moves to solve the second as well.
 

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I think the database is usefull.

For the 6139 Pogue models I'm missing the 6139 6007 reference and also the bracelet called "chicklet" is missing in the actual listing.

For the building of the 6138 data there are also some missing variants.
 
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