The Watch Site banner

1 - 17 of 17 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
32 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
I'm noticing that prices of desirable pieces: 62mas, 6159, 6105 (both variants) are stagnant and nowhere near the record highs we saw in 2019. However, supply and inventory is very low. Sellers seem to be holding onto their pieces, as new listings have become few and far between.

As early as mid-2019, I remember that pieces were far more abundant. Has anyone else been observing this?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
363 Posts
A lot of markets are in an odd position right now.

Seiko was very under researched, under documented, under appreciated, and was a steal for the quality 20 years ago. Places like the original version of this forum played a large role in changing that. Interest in the brand and knowledge of its quality combined with a growing body of reference information and a good economy with lots of discretionary and expendable income began to increase market desirability and interest.

Like many other non necessity markets, 2008 threw a huge speed bump into things. Things got back on track after a while. There is a finite supply. The supplies were previously undervalued. People speculated on getting in before peak prices. Increasing demand and increasing prices. Very good for people with a huge pile of old Seikos they bought 15-20 years ago, a little sad for those that sold Some well before the peak, and frustrating for those trying to get those pieces now.

And then 2020 happened. Media hype and political agendas turned a virus worse than the average flu into a huge event. The average deceased victim has three comorbid medical conditions and is 80 years old. In a country with an average lifespan of 78. As of now, the US, a disproportionate player in the watch/luxury/non essential collectible market, stands at 107% of the expected deaths for this year. With the overwhelming majority of that 7% statistically and actuarily dying only months sooner than would have been predicted. But with the massive fear and reluctance to face the music a new virus that is here to stay brings, dumped about an additional six trillion into expenditures, millions have lost their jobs, hundreds of thousands of business closed with many not going to reopen, educational systems drastically affected, young people’s futures uncertain if not ruined over lost scholarships, internships, interviews, job offers, free movement hindered, compliance fines, etc. which has a significant number of effects on the economy. Add to this, serious political unrest and riots which essentially can be boiled down to 13% of the population accounts for 50% of the violent crime and 40% of resources such as Medicaid, EMS, etc. and is mad at everyone about it despite decades of increased funding and programs to address it that work for everyone else, including more recent immigrants that look just like them, but not for them. Leading to events that increase tensions, crimes, unrest, and uncertainty. With the icing on the cake of an election year pitting a man the old school right hates for not being part of the club, the left hates period, with a dread aura of a voting process that appears part of the political spectrum wants to set up to being vulnerable to fraudulent counts and the use of non citizens here illegally as voters.

A very strange and turbulent year. Watches are a collector hobby market of little overall import. Nobody is going to die over buying or selling old watches or what new models come out. So we sort of see a pause button hit.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
2,937 Posts
I'm noticing that prices of desirable pieces: 62mas, 6159, 6105 (both variants) are stagnant and nowhere near the record highs we saw in 2019. However, supply and inventory is very low. Sellers seem to be holding onto their pieces, as new listings have become few and far between.

As early as mid-2019, I remember that pieces were far more abundant. Has anyone else been observing this?

Yes I agree, I have seen the same. Only a year ago a non-working 62mas got over £2,000 (c.$2,500). now that amount will get you a much better example, and 6105's have completely stalled.
It's clear that diver prices have peaked (for the moment at least) while the focus has shifted to chrono's. People are falling over each other buying up every half decent Pogue on eBay. I think it is fair to say that the chrono's had some catching up to do... which they are now doing.
With genuine Pogues being snapped up at ever higher prices, the fakers are having a field day. Buyers are so stupid, even when the seller admits it has a 'replaced' dial (ie. fake) people bid it high and pay a lot of money for a well photographed highly polished tarted up piece of junk with very little actual value.

Some divers are holding their own, and increasing in price, - notably nice original 6309's. While everyone was concentrating on 6105's and 62mas, the 6309 was being forgotten. Like the chrono's, the 6309's are rightly catching up at last. A bit late perhaps, they are disappearing fast from the auction listings. There's no looking back with the real gems though, 6215 and 6159 divers are still the 'jewel in the crown' , and they always will be.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,225 Posts
The same happened with the 6138 panda back in 2017 i believe. The prices rose very sharply in a short period of time and were all the hype. Soon after the prices came down again and the hype died down. Now 3 years later the prices are perhaps not even back to what they were at the peak. I have seen the same happen with the 6105's.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,720 Posts
Even if the prices have flatlined, most of what you see for sale on ebay is really average or not even that. Sure you might snap up a great condition bargain every now and again. I have been selling some great watches lately and I have been really happy with the prices I'm getting. If you are patient and you a selling a quality piece it will generally find a buyer that sees the value in a great condition vintage watch.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,852 Posts
With regard to the number of examples for sale, is the international postage situation a factor? I've a few watches I've been holding to fund a very costly restoration, but I haven't listed them anywhere because it takes at least a month or more for items to get from Australia to just about anywhere. I'm not so keen on leaving higher valued items in the mail system that long.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,720 Posts
With regard to the number of examples for sale, is the international postage situation a factor? I've a few watches I've been holding to fund a very costly restoration, but I haven't listed them anywhere because it takes at least a month or more for items to get from Australia to just about anywhere. I'm not so keen on leaving higher valued items in the mail system that long.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Speed of postage is definitely hit and miss, especially if it's regular tracked parcel. The express option seems to be more effective and that's the service I use if it's of high value.
 

·
Administrator
Joined
·
30,123 Posts
Quality always tends to stay on top especially sought after vintage models.

Even if the prices have flatlined, most of what you see for sale on ebay is really average or not even that. Sure you might snap up a great condition bargain every now and again. I have been selling some great watches lately and I have been really happy with the prices I'm getting. If you are patient and you a selling a quality piece it will generally find a buyer that sees the value in a great condition vintage watch.
 
1 - 17 of 17 Posts
Top