A lot of markets are in an odd position right now.
Seiko was very under researched, under documented, under appreciated, and was a steal for the quality 20 years ago. Places like the original version of this forum played a large role in changing that. Interest in the brand and knowledge of its quality combined with a growing body of reference information and a good economy with lots of discretionary and expendable income began to increase market desirability and interest.
Like many other non necessity markets, 2008 threw a huge speed bump into things. Things got back on track after a while. There is a finite supply. The supplies were previously undervalued. People speculated on getting in before peak prices. Increasing demand and increasing prices. Very good for people with a huge pile of old Seikos they bought 15-20 years ago, a little sad for those that sold Some well before the peak, and frustrating for those trying to get those pieces now.
And then 2020 happened. Media hype and political agendas turned a virus worse than the average flu into a huge event. The average deceased victim has three comorbid medical conditions and is 80 years old. In a country with an average lifespan of 78. As of now, the US, a disproportionate player in the watch/luxury/non essential collectible market, stands at 107% of the expected deaths for this year. With the overwhelming majority of that 7% statistically and actuarily dying only months sooner than would have been predicted. But with the massive fear and reluctance to face the music a new virus that is here to stay brings, dumped about an additional six trillion into expenditures, millions have lost their jobs, hundreds of thousands of business closed with many not going to reopen, educational systems drastically affected, young people’s futures uncertain if not ruined over lost scholarships, internships, interviews, job offers, free movement hindered, compliance fines, etc. which has a significant number of effects on the economy. Add to this, serious political unrest and riots which essentially can be boiled down to 13% of the population accounts for 50% of the violent crime and 40% of resources such as Medicaid, EMS, etc. and is mad at everyone about it despite decades of increased funding and programs to address it that work for everyone else, including more recent immigrants that look just like them, but not for them. Leading to events that increase tensions, crimes, unrest, and uncertainty. With the icing on the cake of an election year pitting a man the old school right hates for not being part of the club, the left hates period, with a dread aura of a voting process that appears part of the political spectrum wants to set up to being vulnerable to fraudulent counts and the use of non citizens here illegally as voters.
A very strange and turbulent year. Watches are a collector hobby market of little overall import. Nobody is going to die over buying or selling old watches or what new models come out. So we sort of see a pause button hit.